Pick principal: Ilia Topuria beats Justin Gaethje.
Trust: 4/5.
Explanation: In a 5R per belt, the “repeatable plan” factor weighs. Topuria is more efficient in winning exchanges without giving away: jab/straight entries, timing to punish the climb on guard and, above all, real threat of takedown/harvest if Gaethje starts carrying too much weight on the legs to defend. Gaethje is always dangerous because of its controlled chaos and how it punishes with the low and hands of the pocket, But against a champion who doesn't mess up it's harder to find a clean window without paying a price.
Suggestions: Topuria ML as a base. If you are looking to improve quota, Topuria by KO/TKO o “Topuria Win + under” (according to available lines).
Quota cut ML: Play Topuria Yes ≥1.15–1.20; If it is compressed below, I prefer props.