Main pick: Rafael Estevam defeats Ethyn Ewing (dog).
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: Very tight line. The dog here makes sense if he manages to impose the pace and take advantage in key exchanges, especially if the favorite does not clearly dominate any phase. Ewing is favored because the market sees him as slightly more consistent, but at odds 2.10 the long side is perfectly playable.
Suggestions: Estevam ML in single (content stake). Avoid combined.
ML Odds Cut-off: Playable Estevam if ≥2.00–2.25; if it drops below 1.90, it loses value.