Main pick: Donte Johnson defeats Eric McConico.
Confidence: 4/5.
Explanation: Johnson is one of my favorite picks on the card. He's undefeated, he's nine years younger, and so far he's translated his power and physical ability well every time he's increased his level. I also especially like the environment in which he's preparing for the fight, working with names like Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez, because it allows him to measure himself daily against fighters capable of imposing pressure and rhythms typical of the elite. McConico has experience and enough power to punish a mistake, but his trajectory is much more irregular and I can't find a concrete tool with which he can clearly impose the fight. Johnson must avoid rushing for completion and use his speed, pressure and strength in clinch. If he maintains his performance after the first round, I see an important difference.
Suggestions: Johnson ML for combined. Alternative: Johnson by KO/TKO.
ML odds cut-off: It has value around 1.40-1.45; if it clearly falls below 1.35 I would prefer to look for completion.