Main pick: Long Xiao defeats Cody Garbrandt.
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: Garbrandt is still pure volatility: he has a high ceiling if he is fast and loosens hands with timing, but if he gets messy or stands still, he is exposed. Long Xiao arrives as a favorite for stability and lower variance. Pick of probability, not "ceiling".
Suggestions: Long Xiao ML if you are looking for security; if you want courage/aggressiveness, Garbrandt ML is the quota side (high risk).
ML quota cut: Long Xiao if ≥1.60; Garbrandt if ≥2.30.