Pick principal: Ciryl Gane beats Alex Pereira (dog).
Trust: 2.5/5.
Explanation: It is the underdog “reasonable” of the event by style. Gane, If you fight at your pace, you can turn this into a distance and mobility fight: enter/go out, play and not stay in the counter-coup area where Pereira is variable. Pereira has the most dangerous tool of the crossing (power + read + leg punishment) and if you are forced to fight planted, breaks your script. But at short dog's share, the value is in which you can win rounds without needing a single moment... provided you don't let yourself be held back by the low kick and don't end up cornered.
Suggestions: Gane ML (stake low: Gane by decision whether the market pays well (it is the most “clean” way for its side).
Quota cut ML: Gane whether ≥1.90–2.10; if you are 1.80, the value is diluted.