The return of Conor McGregor is, without a doubt, the most anticipated event of the year in the UFC. Five years after his last appearance in the octagon, the Irishman will return to face Max Holloway in a rematch that comes thirteen years after their first confrontation. The expectation is enormous, but so are the doubts.
The big question is inevitable: does McGregor really have a chance of defeating Holloway?
If you look at the general consensus of analysts, trainers and specialized media such as MMA Fighting, MMA Mania, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo Sports, ESPN MMA or Bloody Elbow, the answer is clear: he does have options, but he starts as an underdog.
Bookmakers also reflect that trend. Holloway arrives as the favorite and McGregor appears as a contender, a rare situation for one of the biggest stars in the history of the sport.
The main argument in favor of Hawaiian is very simple: continuity.
While McGregor has been out of competition for five years, Holloway has continued to face the absolute elite. He has fought title fights, maintained a very high competitive pace, and continues to be one of the fighters with the highest striking volume in the entire UFC. His ability to maintain a steady pace for five rounds remains one of the greatest virtues of modern mixed martial arts.
Precisely there appears one of the biggest concerns around McGregor.
Several analysts agree that cardio can become the deciding factor in the fight. Historically, the Irishman has always been especially dangerous during the first few minutes, when his accuracy and explosiveness reach the highest level. However, he has also shown difficulty maintaining that intensity when fights drag on.
After five years without competing, that unknown is even greater.
Michael Bisping has publicly argued that a fight-based strategy probably wouldn't be the best option for McGregor because of the enormous physical wear and tear it would take. Other analysts believe his best chance is to set the pace early on and look for a finish before Holloway can start building volume.
Alexander Volkanovski, who knows the Hawaiian perfectly after having shared more than an hour of octagon with him, also believes that Holloway starts with an advantage. In his opinion, McGregor will continue to be extremely dangerous during the first exchanges, but if Holloway manages to overcome that initial stretch, the fight should progressively tilt to his side thanks to the pace, endurance and volume of punches that characterize the former featherweight champion.
That doesn't mean McGregor is out of the question.
In fact, virtually every pundit agrees on one point: He's still one of the best finishers the UFC has ever had. His left hand continues to be a real threat and Holloway can never afford to make mistakes during the first few rounds.
There is also another element that invites prudence.
The first fight between the two ended with McGregor's victory. It is true that it happened in 2013 and that both were completely different fighters, but the Irishman already showed then that he could find solutions to neutralize part of the Hawaiian's offensive volume.
The change of category also has an influence.
The fight will be fought at welterweight, a division in which McGregor has previously competed. Holloway, on the other hand, continues to adapt to a higher weight than he developed for most of his career. For some analysts, that detail could slightly reduce the physical difference between the two and favor the explosive style of the Irishman.
So what real chances does McGregor have?
If the fight ends during the first two rounds, his options increase considerably. Few fighters in history have been as dangerous as him when he finds the distance and connects clean with the left. His accuracy, counterattack ability and striking reading remain elite.
However, if Holloway manages to survive that start and forces the fight to enter the final rounds, the scenario changes completely. The Hawaiian has built much of his legacy precisely by punishing opponents who begin to lose rhythm while he continues to increase the volume of punching.
In short, the consensus among specialists places Max Holloway as the favorite, mainly because of his recent activity, his endurance and his ability to maintain a very high pace throughout the fight.
Of course, they all agree on one last idea.
Conor McGregor should never be ruled out.
Because throughout his career he has proven time and time again that he only needs a few seconds to turn a fight around. And when one of the greatest finishers of all time returns after a five-year absence, any prediction must be made with a margin of caution.