One of the most repeated phrases in mixed martial arts is that mathematics doesn't work. Whenever an amateur tries to predict a fight based solely on previous results, the UFC takes care to remind them that this sport rarely follows a linear logic.
The most recent proof is found in the chaotic triangle formed by Ilia Topuria, Justin Gaethje, Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira.
On paper, it seemed easy to draw conclusions. Topuria had knocked out Charles Oliveira. He had also defeated Max Holloway in a convincing way. In turn, Holloway starred in one of the most memorable knockouts in recent history when he finished Justin Gaethje in the last second of his fight. Oliveira had also previously defeated Gaethje.
Following the logic of many fans, Topuria must have been a nightmare for the American. However, the MMA once again showed that they do not understand equations. When the two met in the UFC Freedom 250, it was Gaethje who ended up prevailing after a real war, dismantling any comparison based on previous results.
And the fact is that MMA have always punished those who try to simplify the sport too much.
One of the most famous examples in modern history came at featherweight. Jose Aldo dominated the division for years and seemed virtually invincible. Conor McGregor knocked him out in just thirteen seconds and many interpreted that as a demonstration of absolute superiority. However, shortly after Nate Diaz defeated McGregor, while Aldo never got to face Diaz. The comparisons stopped making sense from the get-go.
Another historical case occurred at lightweight. Eddie Alvarez defeated Rafael dos Anjos to win the belt. He was later completely outclassed by Conor McGregor. Years later, Dustin Poirier defeated McGregor twice in a row. However, when Poirier and Alvarez shared a cage, the rivalry ended with a fight without a clear winner and subsequently a victory for Poirier after a much more even confrontation than expected.
Matt Serra's career also offers one of the best examples ever seen. Georges St-Pierre was considered one of the most complete fighters on the planet when Serra staged one of the biggest upsets in history by defeating him. No one disputed that St-Pierre was technically superior in practically all sections, but that night the logic simply disappeared.
More recently, the lightweight has been a veritable laboratory to demonstrate the futility of mathematics applied to MMA. Dustin Poirier defeated Max Holloway. Holloway defeated Justin Gaethje. And Gaethje defeated Dustin Poirier with a spectacular kick to the head. A perfect circle that shows how styles often matter much more than previous results.
The phenomenon has a relatively simple explanation. MMA are not a uniform sport. Each fighter poses different problems. Some stand out for their constant pressure. Others depend on distance. Some are specialists in fighting, while others base all their success on striking. A fighter can have enormous difficulties against a specific opponent and yet dominate another fighter who had previously defeated that same opponent.
That's why coaches often reject any analysis based solely on cross-win and cross-over. Context matters. Timing of the race matters. Injuries matter. Weight matters. Style matters. Even one bad night can completely change the outcome.
The history of UFC is full of similar examples. Champions who seemed unstoppable and fell to unexpected opponents. Aspirants who were dominated by fighters they were supposed to overcome with ease. Legends who lost to competitors with a seemingly inferior resume.
And now Topuria and Gaethje have joined that long list.
Because if the UFC Freedom 250 has shown anything, it is that mathematics can work on a sheet of paper, but they rarely survive when the door of the octagon closes. In the MMA the one who defeated the rival who defeated the rival who defeated the other does not win. The winner is the one who finds the right solution that night.
And that's precisely why this sport is still so fascinating.