It's been more than two months since the night that completely changed Ilia Topuria's trajectory and we still know surprisingly little about her future.
Justin Gaethje not only ended El Matador's undefeated record at UFC Freedom 250. It also snatched the lightweight championship from him and forced him to face something completely new in his career: recovering from a very tough defeat while the rest of UFC continue to advance without expecting him.
Since then, silence.
Topuria posted a message on Instagram after the fight acknowledging Gaethje's victory and making it clear that he considers that the story between the two is not over yet. Since that publication, practically nothing.
There has not been a great interview explaining what happened that night. Nor has there been a press conference to analyse the defeat, an announcement about their next opponent or an official date to return to the octagon.
For someone who in recent years had used the media and social networks with enormous skill to build his fights, the contrast is evident.
The Ilia Topuria who publicly persecuted Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, Islam Makhachev or Paddy Pimblett has temporarily disappeared from the map.
The little we have seen of him has come indirectly.
Photographs with fans, images with friends and some appearances during his holidays have shown that, at least externally, his face seems much more recovered from the tremendous punishment he received against Gaethje.
He has also been seen enjoying the summer in Ibiza, accompanied on some occasions by women and by footballers such as Ferran Torres and Álex Baena.
Nothing especially strange for an athlete who is recovering and enjoying a period without competition.
What is striking is that these images constitute practically all the public information that exists about Topuria.
While his life outside the octagon occasionally appears on social networks, his sporting future remains surrounded by an unusual secrecy.
And there is an obvious explanation.
The defeat against Gaethje was not just any defeat.
Topuria finished the fight with fractures in both orbitals and his nose after receiving a lot of punishment. His corner decided not to go out in the fifth round and later had to go to the hospital.
Such an injury forces a change of priorities.
Before talking about opponents, belts or dates, it is necessary to fully recover an area that is especially delicate for any fighter.
The news coming from his entourage is positive. His physical recovery would be progressing faster than initially expected and he could be in a position to train and compete before the end of the year.
It's another thing entirely for doing so to be smart.
His own entourage has slipped that waiting until 2027 could be the most logical decision.
And here begins the really interesting part.
Because while Topuria rests, UFC is moving the pieces of the two divisions that it has dominated for the last few years.
The featherweight has already definitively continued without him.
Alexander Volkanovski is champion again and is scheduled to defend against the undefeated Movsar Evloev at UFC 333 on October 24.
That pretty much shuts down any immediate chance that Topuria decides to drop back to 145 pounds to try to regain his old belt.
And, in reality, it does not seem the most logical move either.
Topuria quit featherweight after becoming champion and defending the title by knocking out Max Holloway. Putting his body back to the 145-pound weight cut after he had established himself as a lightweight would make little sense unless there was an extraordinary sporting opportunity.
His future seems to still be at 155 pounds.
The problem is that the lightweight isn't waiting either.
Gaethje is now the champion and, for the time being, has completely cooled down the possibility of an immediate rematch.
The American also came out physically punished from UFC Freedom 250. His hands still need recovery and he has already made it clear that his intention is not to compete again for the remainder of 2026.
That eliminates one of the most obvious routes for Topuria.
Ilia himself asked for revenge after losing, but right now there is little incentive for Gaethje to grant it immediately.
He won the fight, he has the belt and he can wait to see how the division evolves.
Charles Oliveira is trying to take advantage of precisely that situation.
Do Bronx wants to play for the championship again and has publicly placed Gaethje as his big target. The rematch has an obvious story behind it: Oliveira already defeated the American in 2022 and now both are in a completely different situation.
There is no signed Gaethje-Oliveira yet, but Charles is clearly trying to position himself as the alternative for the champion's next defense.
Arman Tsarukyan, another of the names that inevitably appeared when talking about Topuria's future, is also not available.
The Armenian is scheduled to face Mauricio Ruffy in UFC 331.
This leaves a curious situation.
Topuria continues to be one of the biggest names in lightweight, but the main pieces of the division are moving while he remains stationary.
And precisely for this reason a fight appears that seems to make more and more sense.
Paddy Pimblett.
It is probably the opponent that best combines sporting logic, personal history and business.
Topuria and Pimblett have been dragging a rivalry for years that began long before they were both close to the championship. They have exchanged insults, starred in confrontations outside the cage and made it clear on numerous occasions that there is not much affection between them.
For a while it seemed inevitable that they would end up fighting.
Topuria's meteoric rise and their conquest of two divisions saw their careers move at different speeds, but now they meet again at a compatible point.
Pimblett is coming off a comeback from his defeat against Gaethje with a resounding victory against Benoît Saint Denis and has already mentioned Topuria again among the opponents he wants to face.
For UFC the fight would make a lot of sense.
Topuria needs to return after the first loss of his career and probably won't need to be immediately placed in another championship match.
Pimblett needs to prove definitively that he can defeat one of the best lightweights on the planet.
And both have a previous history that practically sells the fight on its own.
In addition, there is a sporting element that is often buried under all the rivalry.
It would be a very interesting fight.
Pimblett has improved considerably since his first appearances in UFC. He is huge for the category, dangerous on the ground and increasingly comfortable competing against higher-level opposition.
Topuria, on the other hand, would continue to enter as one of the most technically complete fighters in the division, with a much superior boxing and grappling that is often forgotten due to the spectacularity of his knockouts.
But after Gaethje there would be a new question.
How does Ilia Topuria respond after being defeated?
Until UFC Freedom 250 everything in his career had advanced practically in a straight line.
Victories.
Knockouts.
Volkanovsky.
Holloway.
Oliveira.
Two championships.
Undefeated.
The defeat against Gaethje broke that narrative for the first time.
And that makes his next fight one of the most interesting of his entire career, regardless of who is in front of him.
We will no longer see only Topuria trying to prove that he can become a champion.
We'll see how he responds after finding out that he can also lose.
Perhaps that is precisely the reason for the silence.
We don't know what Topuria is thinking because Topuria has decided that we don't know.
He's not engaging in war words. He's not publicly demanding a date. He's not building his next fight yet.
He is recovering.
Meanwhile, Volkanovski and Evloev will figure out some of the featherweight future. Tsarukyan and Ruffy will do the same at lightweight. Oliveira is pushing to get closer to Gaethje and the champion himself seems willing to spend the rest of the year resting.
The board will probably be much clearer when Ilia is ready to return.
That is why 2027 is beginning to seem like the most logical scenario.
And if Gaethje has another commitment by then or UFC considers that Topuria needs a victory before contesting the belt again, there is a fight that has been waiting for the right moment for years.
Ilia Topuria vs. Paddy Pimblett.
It is not confirmed.
We don't even know yet when El Matador will return.
But seeing how the lightweight is moving while Topuria remains silent, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find an alternative that makes more sporting, media and economic sense for his return.