Ilia Topuria's loss to Justin Gaethje in the UFC Freedom 250 has opened one of the most interesting debates of the moment in mixed martial arts. Should the UFC grant an immediate rematch to the Spanish-Georgian or should he first rebuild his way to the belt?
The answer is not simple. There are strong arguments to defend both positions and, as is so often the case in UFC, the final decision will probably depend on both sporting merit and commercial interest.
The arguments for an immediate rematch
Until the fight against Gaethje, Ilia Topuria was one of the most dominant figures in the entire organization. He had won the featherweight belt by defeating Alexander Volkanovski and later defended the title against Max Holloway, becoming the first man able to finish the Hawaiian. He then decided to move up to lightweight, where he knocked out Charles Oliveira to become champion of a second division and become one of the few double champions in the history of the UFC.
That resume does not disappear because of a single defeat.
Throughout UFC history, several champions have received an immediate rematch after losing the belt. Israel Adesanya faced Alex Pereira again a few months after losing the middleweight title and regained the championship. Amanda Nunes received an immediate rematch against Julianna Peña after giving up the bantamweight belt. Joanna Jędrzejczyk also got an immediate second chance after losing the title to Rose Namajunas. Cain Velasquez regained the heavyweight championship in his rematch against Junior dos Santos, while Stipe Miocic also regained the belt against Daniel Cormier after falling in their first matchup.
The UFC has shown on numerous occasions that it usually rewards champions who have built a legacy before losing the title.
Topuria can make arguments in that regard. He came into the fight undefeated, was champion in two categories and had consecutively defeated Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira, three of the most important fighters in recent history in the featherweight and lightweight divisions.
Also, from a commercial point of view, a rematch would make a lot of sense. The fight was one of the most mediatic events of the year and generated enormous international interest. A second fight would continue to arouse enormous expectation among fans.
The arguments against
There are also strong reasons to think that an immediate rematch would be hasty.
The first has to do with the way in which the defeat came.
It was not an even fight or a controversial decision. Justin Gaethje was clearly imposing himself as the rounds progressed until the Topuria corner stopped the fight due to the enormous punishment accumulated. The champion ended up with an orbital fracture and needed medical assistance after leaving the octagon.
That outcome makes it much harder to justify an immediate rematch.
The Topuria route also weighs within the lightweight.
Although he won the belt by defeating Charles Oliveira, he only made one defense of the championship before losing it. Unlike other champions who received a second chance after several successful defenses, his history at 155 pounds was still very short.
The situation of the division does not play in their favor either.
Arman Tsarukyan has been establishing himself among the best lightweights in the world for several years. He has defeated top-level opponents and has long appeared to be the most solid contender for the championship. Sportingly, it is difficult to defend Topuria from a contender who has been waiting for his opportunity for so long.
Another important aspect is the impact that the defeat has had on the general perception of the fans.
Until the UFC Freedom 250 there was a feeling that Topuria could dominate the category for many years. After the fight, that image has changed considerably. Gaethje found answers to neutralize his offense, punished his striking harshly and ended up imposing a pace that the Spaniard could not sustain.
That has meant that many fans do not see an immediate rematch as a particularly different fight from the first one. The general impression is that Topuria needs time to evolve, recover physically and adjust certain aspects before facing the champion again.
What should the UFC do now?
If the criterion is to reward legacy, Topuria has enough arguments to ask for a rematch. Very few fighters can boast of having been champions in two divisions and of arriving undefeated after defeating Volkanovski, Holloway and Oliveira consecutively.
However, if the criterion is exclusively sporting, the situation changes.
The forcefulness of the defeat, the short experience as lightweight champion and the existence of contenders such as Arman Tsarukyan make us think that the most logical thing would be for Topuria to fight one more fight before fighting for the belt again.
That doesn't mean he's no longer one of the biggest stars in the UFC. He's still one of the fighters with the greatest ability to sell out events and any rivalry he stars in will have a huge impact. But precisely because of that, the organization now has several very attractive alternatives to rebuild his path to a future title fight.
The rematch with Justin Gaethje will probably end up coming. The big question is not if it will happen, but when. And seeing how the lightweight outlook has turned out, everything points to the fact that it will take a longer road to return to the top.